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ubject to shocks and systemic shifts. Limitations and Risks of the Simplistic Approach Overconfidence in Prediction Accuracy One of the most critical pitfalls is overconfidence—assuming that models accurately encapsulate the future. This leads to: Underestimating uncertaintie

vénements Les lois de probabilité Les concepts fondamentaux en probabilités Voici les principaux concepts que chaque élève doit maîtriser : L’espace échantillonnal : l’ensemble de tous les résultats possibles d’une ex

x) = p^x (1-p)^(1-x), where x ∈ {0, 1}. Binomial Distribution Extends Bernoulli trials to n independent experiments, each with success probability p. It models the total number of successes. PMF: P(X = k) = C(n, k) p^k (1-p)^(n-k), for k = 0, 1, ..., n. Poisson D